Molecular Pathogens 2024, Vol.15, No.3, 129-141 http://microbescipublisher.com/index.php/mp 137 Figure 3 Pupal performance of small hive beetle projected to the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 (a,b) and 8.5 (c,d) for the years 2060 (a,c) and 2080 (b,d) (Adopted from Cornelissen et al., 2019) Image caption: Pupal performance is based on a composite index combing pupal survival rate and development time (Equation 3.1) and ranges between zero (no performance) and one (maximum performance). According to thresholds obtained from model validation (see Figure 2), continuous pupal performance values were classified into conditions of high climatic suitability (values higher than 0.64; red to orange colours), marginally suitable (values between 0.4 and 0.64; yellow to green) and unsuitable climatic conditions (values below 0.4; blue to grey colours). Non-vegetated areas are masked in white (Adopted from Cornelissen et al., 2019) The research of Cornelissen et al. (2019) illustrates projected pupal performance of the small hive beetle under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for 2060 and 2080. Panels (a) and (b) display projections for RCP 2.6, indicating lower greenhouse gas emissions and resultant climatic conditions. Panels (c) and (d) present projections for RCP 8.5, which assume higher emissions and more severe climate change impacts. Across both time frames and scenarios, areas of high climatic suitability (red to orange) for the small hive beetle's pupal stage are widespread, particularly in tropical and subtropical regions. However, the extent of suitable habitat increases under RCP 8.5 compared to RCP 2.6, suggesting that higher emissions will exacerbate the beetle's proliferation. Marginally suitable areas (yellow to green) and unsuitable areas (blue to grey) also shift accordingly, highlighting how future climate conditions could significantly alter the distribution and impact of this pest on beekeeping and ecosystems globally. 8.2 Successful mitigation efforts Several regions have implemented successful mitigation efforts to combat these threats. In Spain, the development of a simple analytical method to evaluate pesticide residue levels in honeybees has been a significant step forward. This method, which involves ultrasound-assisted extraction and LC-MS/MS pesticide determination, has been validated and applied in citrus orchards over a two-year study period (García-Valcárcel et al., 2019). Globally, breeding programs have been initiated to enhance heritable traits of resistance or tolerance to the Varroa destructor mite, a major pathological threat to honeybees. These programs focus on selectively breeding or naturally selecting honeybee populations that can survive mite parasitism (Mondet et al., 2020). Furthermore, a global survey revealed that many countries have stable or increasing honeybee populations due to routine data collection and conservation efforts, although other pollinators receive less attention (Halvorson et al., 2021). 8.3 Lessons learned from various regions From these regional analyses, several lessons can be drawn. First, the importance of integrated pest management and the development of precise analytical methods cannot be overstated. These approaches not only help in monitoring pesticide residues but also in reducing their application, thereby minimizing environmental damage (García-Valcárcel et al., 2019). Second, breeding programs that focus on enhancing resistance to specific
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