International Journal of Molecular Evolution and Biodiversity 2024, Vol.14, No.2, 91-103 http://ecoevopublisher.com/index.php/ijmeb 97 climate conditions. Additionally, integrated models can help pinpoint future refugia, providing scientific guidance for conservation efforts. This information is crucial for developing effective conservation strategies, guiding the selection of protected areas, planning species translocations, and restoring habitats, thereby enhancing species’ chances of survival under climate change. By employing this comprehensive approach, conservation biologists can better address the complex challenges posed by climate change, ensuring the long-term preservation of biodiversity. Integrated models have been used to assess the adaptive capacity of reptiles, such as the rainforest sunskink. These models consider factors like genetic diversity and physiological plasticity to predict how species may adapt to changing climates (Carter and Janzen, 2021). Studies using integrated models show that some reptiles may expand their ranges in response to climate change, while others may face significant range contractions. For instance, models for the velvet gecko predict potential range expansions into new suitable habitats, while other species like the Phrynosoma modestumare expected to suffer range contractions (Vicenzi et al., 2017). 5 Case Studies of Reptile Responses to Climate Change 5.1 Regional case studies Climate change poses significant threats to Australian reptiles, with many species experiencing range contractions and shifts due to rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns. For instance, the potential distribution of the black beaded lizard (Heloderma alvarezi) under global warming scenarios shows a significant reduction in suitable habitats under pessimistic climate forecasts (Figure 3) (Gómez-Cruz et al., 2021). Figure 3 Potential distribution of H. alvarezi under different climate change scenarios using different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) and the seven bioclimatic variables that best explain the potential distribution of H. alvarezi (Adopted from Gómez-Cruz et al., 2021 ) Image caption: The lower left panel shows the current distribution (blue area). Under the optimistic scenario (RCP 4.5), projections for 2050 and 2070 indicate that while the distribution area slightly decreases, it still maintains a relatively large range. In the pessimistic scenario (RCP 7), projections for 2050 and 2070 show a significant reduction in the distribution area, becoming more confined. The colors from light red to dark red represent the impact of climate change on H. alvarezi’s distribution, helping to understand spatial distribution changes. The scale and north arrow (N) guide spatial understanding (Adapted from Gómez-Cruz et al., 2021)
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