International Journal of Molecular Evolution and Biodiversity 2024, Vol.14, No.2, 91-103 http://ecoevopublisher.com/index.php/ijmeb 91 Research Perspectives Open Access Predicting the Future of Reptile Diversity under Climate Change Scenarios Xinghao Li, Jia Xuan Institute of Life Sciences, Jiyang Colloge of Zhejiang A&F University, Zhuji, 311800, Zhejiang, China Corresponding author: cherryjxuan@gmail.com International Journal of Molecular Evolution and Biodiversity, 2024, Vol.14, No.2 doi: 10.5376/ijmeb.2024.14.0011 Received: 24 Feb., 2024 Accepted: 30 Mar., 2024 Published: 26 Apr., 2024 Copyright © 2024 Li and Xuan, This is an open access article published under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. Preferred citation for this article: Li X.H., and Xuan J., 2024, Predicting the future of reptile diversity under climate change scenarios, International Journal of Molecular Evolution and Biodiversity, 14(2): 91-103 (doi: 10.5376/ijmeb.2024.14.0011) Abstract This study aims to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on global reptile diversity and explore conservation strategies and management measures. By analyzing reptile distribution prediction models under different climate change scenarios, we found that climate change will lead to significant changes in reptile habitats, affecting their physiology and behavior. Key research indicates that reptiles in tropical, temperate, and arid regions will face varying degrees of habitat loss and distribution range changes, with species that have high habitat specificity and limited migration capacity being particularly affected. By utilizing species distribution models (SDMs) and climate envelope models, we predicted the potential habitat changes for various reptiles under future climate conditions. This study emphasizes the importance of long-term monitoring and data collection, identifies knowledge gaps in current research, and suggests the use of advanced technologies and methods, such as remote sensing, genetic analysis, and citizen science, to better understand and respond to the impacts of climate change on reptiles. Additionally, the study discusses the role of international agreements and national policies in conserving reptile diversity, advocating for enhanced global cooperation and interdisciplinary research to develop more effective conservation measures. Through these comprehensive approaches, we can enhance the resilience of reptile populations and ensure their survival and development in the context of climate change. Keywords Climate change; Reptile diversity; Climate envelope models; Genetic analysis 1 Introduction Reptiles, a diverse group of ectothermic vertebrates, play crucial roles in ecosystems as predators and prey, helping to maintain the balance of various ecological communities. They inhabit a wide range of environments, from tropical rainforests and temperate forests to arid deserts and wetlands. This diversity in habitat and behavior makes reptiles excellent indicators of environmental changes, including those induced by climate change. Climate change poses significant threats to reptile diversity through a combination of rising temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, sea level rise, and increased frequency of extreme weather events. These changes can directly impact reptiles’ physiological processes, reproductive success, and survival rates. For instance, many reptiles, such as sea turtles, exhibit temperature-dependent sex determination, where the sex of the offspring is determined by the incubation temperature of the eggs. Rising temperatures skew sex ratios towards females, potentially leading to population imbalances (Patrício et al., 2018). However, many reptile species are currently facing threats from habitat destruction, pollution, and climate change (Biber et al., 2023). Climate change, driven by anthropogenic activities, is causing shifts in temperature, precipitation patterns, and sea levels. These changes are impacting biodiversity by altering habitats and ecosystems. Reptiles, being ectothermic (cold-blooded) animals, are particularly vulnerable to climate change as their physiological processes are highly temperature-dependent. Rising temperatures can affect their reproductive cycles, sex ratios, and habitat suitability, leading to declines in population and species richness (Dubos et al., 2021). This study aims to assess how climate change will impact reptile diversity globally. By examining changes in habitat suitability, species distributions, and population dynamics, we aim to understand the broader implications for reptile biodiversity. We will explore various predictive models and scenarios to forecast the future impacts of climate change on reptiles. These models will help identify potential shifts in species ranges and the emergence of
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