International Journal of Marine Science, 2025, Vol.15, No.2, 75-91 http://www.aquapublisher.com/index.php/ijms 88 9 Future Outlook: Sustainable Utilization and Protection Path 9.1 Potential distribution prediction based on niche model Faced with the future of climate change and changing environment, scientific prediction of the potential distribution and changing trends of Spanish mackerel is very important for formulating forward-looking management strategies. In recent years, niche models (such as the maximum entropy model MaxEnt, Biomod integration model, etc.) have been widely used to predict the geographical distribution of species in climate change scenarios. For marine fish such as Spanish mackerel, historical fishing locations and biological survey data can be correlated with environmental variables (temperature, salinity, primary productivity, etc.), a species distribution model can be constructed, and then environmental variables in future climate scenarios can be input to simulate the changes in their suitable habitats. Yang et al. (2022)'s study is an example. They used the biomod2 model to predict the eligible areas of Japanese Spanish mackerel in different seasons and future years. The results show that under the moderate emission scenario RCP4.5, the suitable habitat area in summer will be reduced by about one-third in 2050. By 2100, under the high emission RCP8.5, the suitable area in summer may shrink by nearly 90%, and the distribution center will obviously move northward. This type of model provides quantifiable predictions and is of great reference value for resource management. If the model consistently indicates that a certain sea area will no longer be suitable for Spanish mackerel breeding and laying eggs in the future, the local area should adjust the fishery structure as soon as possible to reduce its dependence on Spanish mackerel. At the same time, the new suitable areas pointed out by the model may become key fishing grounds in the future and require pre-planning and management. In addition, in addition to climate factors, the niche model can also be included in human impact variables (such as fishing intensity) for comprehensive simulation to evaluate the changes in Spanish mackerel resources under various scenario combinations. Model accuracy should be further improved in the future, such as using higher resolution marine environmental forecast data, taking into account interspecies relationship impacts (such as predation, competition) to improve prediction reliability. 9.2 Cross-regional collaborative management strategy suggestions The migratory characteristics of Spanish mackerels determine that management measures in a single country are often difficult to work, and cross-regional and cross-border collaborative management mechanisms are urgently needed to achieve sustainable use of resources. In response to this need, the following are some suggestions: Establish a Spanish mackerel management working group or alliance at the regional level. For example, in East Asia, the Joint Management Committee for the Yellow-Bohai Spanish mackerel Resources is formed by China, Japan, South Korea and other countries, which regularly share scientific research data, coordinate fishing moratoriums and fishing quotas, and jointly crack down on illegal fishing. Secondly, promote the standardization and linkage of management measures. With the support of scientific data, countries should agree on a common minimum catchable size and unify the mesh size requirements of the mesh to avoid the management vacuum caused by strict looseness of one country. At the same time, the fishing moratorium system and fishing ban zones of various countries should be as closely linked as possible. Again, establish a network of cross-border marine protected areas. Important spawning grounds and juvenile habitats such as estuaries and coral reefs should be listed as protection priorities. Strengthen joint scientific research and monitoring. Scientific research institutions in various countries can carry out collaborative research on Spanish mackerels, such as jointly conducting resource assessment cruises, marking release experiments, and genetic population structure analysis. Through data sharing and joint model evaluation, more comprehensive and accurate resource dynamic information can be obtained. New technologies such as satellite telemetry and electronic tags can also be used to track the cross-border migration routes of Spanish mackerels to provide a basis for managing the demarcation. Finally, collaborative management also needs to consider the issue of fishermen's livelihood transformation. Countries should cooperate to provide technical and financial support to help fishermen affected by reducing Spanish mackerel fishing turn to alternative industries or increase value chain revenue. 9.3 Genetic resource protection and population restoration construction In order to achieve the long-term sustainable utilization of Spanish mackerel resources, in addition to fishing management, it is also necessary to pay attention to the protection of its genetic diversity and population recovery.
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